The boys and girls at Citi released their latest Global Outlook and Commodities report today. Citi Research: Retains a 50% Chance of a Synchronized Global Recession in 2023 At the country level, the base case assumes multiple so-called „continuous” recessions, measurable in the EU and UK this winter and in the US in mid-2023 Energy subsectors and base metals are generally weaker than broad-based commodities both before and during a recession because most recessions are accompanied by demand destruction in a recession „Commodity sector volatility increases slightly before a recession and more than doubles at the start of a recession” „The volatility of the energy sector almost triples during a recession, while the volatility of precious metals increases by about 50%”