The proposed cap on export prices for Russian oil shipped by sea is „an absurd and impractical idea,” said FGE chairman Fereydun Fesharaki.
According to the expert, even if European importers comply with the restriction, the idea is dead in essence, but even if 100% of buyers take part in it, it is doubtful that this will work, and Russia may reduce supplies, although this is unlikely.
Based on the experience with Iran, tightening the insurance conditions for shipping oil by sea is also unlikely to stop the flow of Russian oil.
The decline in Russian exports of oil products since the start of the special operation in Ukraine has averaged less than 1 million barrels per day, but Russian offshore exports of crude oil are now showing profits, not losses, and may increase.
Oil will fall to $70 a barrel by 2023 in the event of a severe recession, but will likely trade above $100 if the recession is moderate, the FGE chairman said.
Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi have sustainable production capacities of 12 mb/d and 3.8 mb/d respectively, with production targets of 11 mb/d and 3.2 mb/d by August.
This means they will only have 1.6 mb/d of sustainable capacity, but FGE is confident they will try to stabilize the market if they can.