Inflation continued to rise in June
Today we will get the preliminary inflation estimate for June (10:00) and the PMI in manufacturing (9:00). We forecast that CPI inflation rose in June to 15.4% YoY from 13.9% YoY in April (consensus 15.5% YoY). Last month saw an increase in fuel prices by approx. 10% MoM, with a slower than in previous months growth of food prices on a monthly basis. Core inflation categories continued to rise, and here you can see a slowdown in momentum, but monthly increases are still historically high.
PMI: Major fall in main index and leading components
PMI in Polish manufacturing fell to 44.4pts in June. from 48.5 points in May, reaching the lowest level in 25 months. There have been declines in new orders and current production. Deeper declines were recorded only during the financial crisis and pandemic. The drop in new orders is due to the disruptions related to the war in Ukraine and galloping inflation.